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Astronomical facts related to the moon sighting issue can be described as follows:
(1) Earth, Moon and Sun move in their respective orbits and when all three are in a straight line with Moon in the middle, the state is called “conjugation” or Moon birth. At this stage, the Moon cannot be seen with naked eye from any place on the Earth, as all light from the Sun falling on the Moon is reflected backward towards Sun. At conjugation (Moon birth) the Moon appears to be a black disc as viewed from the Earth.
(2) The conjugation calculations depend on the orbital motion of the Moon around the Earth and time period from one conjugation to the next conjugation is fixed and can be calculated easily and exactly. However, there are 5 different ways to calculate the time period for the conjugation, and all 5 are precise and categorically definte (Qati) but each method reveals a different value for the time perod varying from about 27 days + fraction to 29 days + fraction. None of them is of a complete number of days, 27, 28, 29, or 30. For details see www.Islamicmoon,com [1]. Due to the fractional nature of the Moon cycle around the Earth, each conjugation happens at a different time, i.e., any time during the day or night.
(3) The spinning of the Earth about its own axis has important consequences for the Moon sighting. This motion is not synchronized with the orbital motion of the Moon consequently the region of the Earth that faces the Moon at the conjugation is different at each conjugation. Therefore, there is no fixed time of the day or night or a fixed place on Earth which could be associated with the occurrence of the conjugation. In other words, when conjugation occurs, it may be any time of the day or night and the section of Earth facing the Moon at the conjugation time is also different for each conjugation occurrence. Consequently, the region of Earth on which the Hilal (new Moon) becomes visible at first, keeps on changing every month, and, each month is 29 days on some portion of the Earth and 30 days on the remaining portion of the Earth.
(4) There are various criteria for Hilal (new Moon) visibility, as it must have a certain age, a degree of separation from the Sun, height on the horizon, time lag between Sunset and Moonset, etc. Visibility curves can be calculated with accuracy better than 80% in most cases, and serve as a guide for the Hilal visibility, however, the element of uncertainty in such visibility calculations makes them unusable for Islamic calendar causes.
(5) Due to the global nature (spherical or elliptical) of the Earth and its rotation about its own axis, Southern hemisphere and Equator regions of Earth are in the higher visibility areas than Northern hemisphere.
(Comments: the regions where visibility is very low (northern region) represent a special case. Scholars in those areas have resorted to various discourses. Any meaningful discussion in that context is beyond the scope of this article.)
(6) Once the Hilal becomes visible, it remains visible for adjacent areas towards the West and its visibility increases with the age, unless it is obscured for other reasons such as clouds, fog, dust, etc. For example, if a Hilal is sighted in Pakistan, it should be sighted in Saudi Arabia and rest of the Middle Eastern countries, as it keeps on growing in size with age and it must be seen in the USA, 9 -13 hours later.
The Muslim society (Ummah) is divided on the issue of replacing the Islamic criteria of authenticating the beginning of the new month by sighting the Hilal on the eve of 30th night (Islamic month starts from the Sunset) with a method of calculation based on the conjugation calculations. The reason for the divide is the lack of understanding of the issue by the masses and the confusion between religious scholars and scientists. In the light of above stated facts, we shall examine the claims made by the proponents of calculations namely that (1) calculation method used by them is Qati according to Islamic jurisprudence (usul ul Fiqah) and (2) due to its precision, the calculation method preserves the sacredness of Allah’s order better than the eye sighting method.
If it was not for preserving the sacredness of Allah’s months, following His prescribed plan, mankind would have had the liberty to make any choice to fix the duration of the month, year, and count of the time. However, Allah did not allow this liberty to the mankind, at least in religious matters, and associated his sacred time count with the Lunar cycle (a complete rotation of the Earth around the Sun in its orbit). Here are the relevant Quranic references. “It is He who made the sun to be a shining glory and the Moon to be a light (of beauty), and measured out stages for it; that you may know the number of years and the count (of time). Allah has not created this but in truth. (Thus) does He explain His signs in detail, for those who may understand. (10:5)”
“Surely the months with Allah are twelve in the book of Allah since the day He created the heavens and the Earth; four of them are sacred” (9:36).
From the above it is clear that Allah has been guiding the mankind to follow the Lunar count and many societies of the world have been using the Lunar calendar in some form. Allah associated religious functions like Haj, Ramadan, and Eids with the Lunar count. Religious rituals of Jews, ancient Arabs, and others also have been associated with the Lunar calendar. In the time of Prophet Mohammad (peace be upon him) Jews were using a calculated Lunar calendar and were making intercalations to match it with the Solar calendar and Arabs were using other intercalations to change the Haj dates according to their own desires. Allah disliked their actions, and equated it to the disbelief in him. Here is what Allah mentioned in this context in the Quran: “Verily intercalation (nasi’) is an increase in disbelief: the disbelievers are led to wrong thereby: for they make it lawful one year, and forbidden it another year, in order to adjust the number of months forbidden by Allah and make such forbidden ones lawful. The evil of their course seems pleasing to them. But Allah guides not those who reject Faith. (9:37)”
Prophet Mohammad (peace be upon him) did not use the calculated Lunar calendar. The Jews of medina used to taunt him for not knowing and using calculations for ascertaining the month. If calculations were the preferred method, Allah would have taught Prophet Mohammad (peace be upon him) and his companions the method of calculation, as it is easy for Him. If Allah wanted, he could have fixed the days of the month to 29 or 30 or any combination of them, just as he had fixed the 12 months in a year and such calculations would have been easy for everyone. For example, alternating the month with 29 days and 30 days would make the Lunar year 354 days which is the closest number of days for the 12 Lunar cycles (354 days + fraction). However, Allah and his messenger (peace be upon him) did not do so. If Allah did not require us to use such a simple method of calculation (counting to 29 and 30 for alternate months), would he require us to make complicated astronomical calculations for this purpose? Allah guided us to use the method of sighting the Hilal with our own eyes. Allah guided Prophet Mohammad (peace be upon him) to teach us that the month is sometimes 29 days and sometimes 30 days, and we need to confirm it by witnessing the Hilal through the sighting it with eyes on the 30th night (on the completion of the 29th day) whether the month will end on 29th day or will it be of 30 days. It is a more universal approach and is easy for everyone, illiterate, or learned, whether living in the city, in a forest, in a desert, or on a mountain or on the sea, and it includes Allah’s wisdom and conforms to his natural plan. Prophet Mohammad (peace be upon him) talked against intercalations to the Lunar calendar and remarked in his Last Sermon as follows,
“Today, certainly the time has returned to its original form as Allah had created it to be at the time of creation of the Heavens and the Earth.”
Muslims of the later generations have preserved this sacred order by sighting the Hilal locally every month and ascertaining each month based on this sighting and no altercations have been made in this time. Authentication of the new Moon on the completion of the 29th day (30th evening) of the month is a religious necessity. All scholars agree on this aspect. For confirmation purposes one, two, or more, eye witnesses are required depending on the weather conditions and the following of a particular Fiqhi school. Islamic states form official committees comprising of scholars and astronomers to witness the Hilal, and examine any individual Hilal sighting reports, and confirm or negate the Hilal sighting on the 30th evening of a Lunar month.
Now there is a modernist approach from Muslims primarily living in the West to use astronomical calculations rather than eye sighting for the authentication of the month. Traditional scholars of Islam have reject the idea of using any astronomical calculation method, as the requirement for the Hilal sighting on the eve of 30th of a month is an agreed upon position among all the Jurist (Ijma) of the past 14 centuries and is based on the categorically authentic evidence from the Quran and Sunnah. Muslim Jurist of the past 14 centuries are also in consensus on rejecting any use of astronomical calculations for ascertaining the month, except that a small minority of them (only five scholars of repute) has argued for the use of astronomical calculations in the case of obscurities for observing the Halal on the eve of 30th night. However, none of them has argued to by-pass the requirement of eye sighting the Hilal on the eve of 30th night and are in agreement with the consensus of scholars for the necessity of sighting the Moon on the eve of 30th night [2]. Therefore, from the religious perspective it is not an issue of dispute and there is no basis in Shariah that calculations may be used to replace the existing criteria of Hilal sighting for the authentication of the month.
The stated astronomical facts have several implications for the Moon sighting issue.
(1) At conjugation the Moon is an invisible disc and al-ahillah the plural of al-hilal referred in the Quran is the reference to the visible light reflected from the Moon which is first observed on the Earth after the conjugation occurrence, not the Moon itself. So conjugation is not what is referred in the Quran.
(2) Since conjugation occurs any time during day or night, conjugation occurrence cannot be used as a start of the month; as Islamic month start at a fixed time (at the sunset).
(3) Since a different part of the Earth is facing the Moon when each conjugation occurs, therefore, there is no fixed point on the Earth from where the Lunar month may start using conjugation occurrence.
(4) There are five different ways to calculate time from one conjugation occurrence to the next conjugation occurrence and all are categorically correct (Qati) but each reveals a different time period ranging from (27+ fraction) days – (29 + fraction) days. The proponents of the calculations fail to mention which method they will employee in the absence of any injunction (nass) from the Quran and Sunnah. Do they know of which of the five methods is the best according to Allah’s plan to ascertain the month? Would it not introduce element of speculation (Zann) in whatever method they use?
From the above, it is clear that even though conjugation occurrence may be calculated with precision, it may not be used for starting the month due to the above complications, nor is it the al-ahillah of the Quran. There is element of Zann in choosing one of the 5 conjugation calculation methods, thus any use of conjugation data combined with any other criteria, would be Zanni too. There are other implications of the astronomical facts and we will discuss them later.
In the Quran, Allah has mentioned the terms Ilm ul Yaqeen (certainty through knowledge) and Ain ul Yaqeen (certainty by seeing with eyes). Both terms point to certainty but the latter is a higher form of certainty. For example, we know the existence of our Allah by Ilm ul Yaqeen, but we know the existence of Sun and Moon by Ain ul Yaqeen, i.e., seeing with our own eyes. The desire of Prophet Moses (peace be upon him) to see Allah with his eyes points to the fact that seeing with the eyes or Ain ul Yaqeen is the higher or the highest degree of certainty. It was a common knowledge (Ilm ul Yaqeen) at the time of the prophet Mohammad (peace be upon him) that the Lunar month at any place is 29 days or 30 days, not less, not more. Therefore, there is no need to confirm it, on the completion of 28th day or 30th day; however, one needs to confirm it on the completion of 29th day, to make certain whether the month ends or it will extend for another day. Prophet Mohammad (peace be upon him) taught us to confirm the end of month by sighting the Hilal (new Moon) on the eve of the 30th night with our own eyes (ain ul Yaqeen), and he practiced it himself and his companions practiced it. He also taught us that confirmed eye sighting (ain ul Yaqeen) of a few Muslims may be sufficient for the Ilm ul Yaqeen of the rest of the Muslims.
Now we consider the claim of the proponents of the calculation method that calculation method is categorical (Qati) and eye sighting is speculative (Zanni) and anything that is zanni cannot be equated or preferred over what is Qati according to the Islamic principles of the Jurisprudence (usul ul Fiqah) [3].
This argument is not only flawed due to astronomical facts stated above, but is deceptive, as well. Here is what Dr. Zulfiqar Ali Shah claimed: “My argument is that precise authentic astronomical calculations about the birth of new Moon are sufficient of a ground to affirm Islamic Lunar months.” … “calculations about the birth of Moon are universally accepted. They are not Zanni but Qati' (categorical) in Usul al-Fiqah's terminology” [1]. We have shown in the section on astronomical facts that though conjugation calculations based on the orbital motion of the Moon around the Earth are categorically definite (Qati), but they cannot be used for the beginning of the month due to the difficulties associated with the spinning of the Earth about its own axis, and use of any arbitrary criteria of Hilal sighting, such as Um ul Qura criteria of Hilal siting, used by Islamic Society of North America (ISNA) in combination with conjugation data is speculative (Zanni) from many aspects. To add weight to their arguments, proponents of calculations have used the name of a reputed classical scholar Imam Taqi al-Din al-Subki (d.1355 GC) for declaring calculations as definite (Qati) and eye sighting as speculative (Zanni) to give the impression that he was among those who preferred calculations over the eye sighting. Here is Imam Subki’s actual position:
“The Muslims are in consensus, as far as I know, that there is no legal consideration for the opinion of the astronomer that [the month begins] with the separation of the Moon from the Sun at conjunction if visibility is not possible due to the nearness of the crescent to the Sun’s [alignment], irrespective of whether this is before, after, or at the time of Sunset. What scholars have disagreed upon is the situation when the angle of elongation is such that visibility is possible and can be ascertained by calculation but there were clouds that came between us and the crescent; then, in that case, is it permissible to use calculation.” [2]
Here is another quote from his rulings:
“Calculation provides certain and confirmed information, while testimony based on sighting provides only probable information. What is probable cannot counterbalance what is certain, let alone be preferred to it. Evidence is accepted only if what is testified for is possible physically, logically and legally. If we assume that calculation indicates with certainty the impossibility of sighting, then a testimony of sighting must be rejected because it testifies to what is impossible. Islamic law does not make impossible requirements.” (Source: Arab News, 05 November 2002).
Now it is clear from the two statements that Imam Subki was in complete agreement with other scholars in not using the astronomical calculations for ascertaining the end and beginning of the month on completion of the 29th day (on the 30th evening). However, he was on the side of caution to use such information for the 30th day in case of obscurities to see the Hilal. He was also on the side of caution to reject any eye witness of positive sighting when the calculations predicted with certainty that it was impossible to see the Hilal. One may see how deceptive is it to conclude from the above that according to Imam Subki calculations are Qati and sighting is Zanni (in absolute sense)?
The above evidence was the only evidence from classical sources for the claims that calculations are Qati and eye sighting is Zanni. It is apparent now, how baseless was the base on which religious and scientific arguments have been based to abandon the Islamic criteria of Hilial sighting practiced by Muslims for the past 14 centuries?
The modernists claim that the calculation method adopted by them is more precise and thus, preserves Allah’s celestial order better than the eye sighting method. First we examine the case of fixing an arbitrary criterion for the visibility of Hilal, as is done for the Um ul Qura calendar used by Saudi Arabia and Islamic Society of North America (ISNA). The visibility criteria used in this case is that, if conjugation occurs before 3.00 a.m. according to Mecca time and Moonset is after or at the time of the Sunset in Mecca, then the Moon is considered visible or observed. I have already pointed to the element of Zann (uncertainty) in selecting one of the five conjugation calculation methods. Now there are multiple elements of Zann, as well as, violations of Allah’s celestial order in using this criterion. According to Allah’s celestial order, Hilal is not always observed first in Mecca rather it is observed at a different place every month and it may take decades for the Hilal to appear firstly at the same place again. Saudi Arabian government claims to be practicing local Moon sighting for religious purposes and using Um ul Qura calendar for civil purposes. If Um ul Qura method is used for global purposes, as ISNA is currently doing, then the Lunar month will be of the same number of days for the whole planet Earth, whereas, according to Allah’s celestial order each Lunar month is 29 days on some regions of the Earth and 30 days on the remaining region of the Earth and these regions keep on changing every month. The exact knowledge of where the month will be 29 days and where the month will be 30 days is with Allah alone and cannot be predicted by astronomers, though they may confirm it once it happens.
Does the Um ul Qura criterion provide any certainty for the observance of Hilal, a condition necessary from the perspective of Islamic Shariah? No, it may at the best point to the possibility (Imkan) for the early observance of the Hilal. However, the experience shows that there is more chance of being wrong than right using this criterion. Based on the past experience, there is about 45-55% probability of a month being 29 days or 30 days at any given place. So, one may better flip a coin than using such a criterion. A method of calculation will fall in the category of Ilm ul Yaqeen, if there is no element of doubt (Zann) in it. When Um ul Qura criterion does not satisfy the underlined condition, what is the wisdom in selecting this criterion by the proponents of the calculation? Why such a faulty criterion is being imposed on Muslims of North America? I would appreciate, if proponents of calculations may respond to these questions.
A question arises that whether probability (Imkan) of seeing the Hilal on a particular evening at Mecca or any other place would be a sufficient ground for declaring confirmed sighting (Roha’it) either through calculations or otherwise. Everyone is aware that the Hilal may be seen on the completion of 29th day or it may not be seen on the completion of 29th day. Were this probability (Imkan) of seeing the Hilal on the completion of 29th day a sufficient ground for fulfilling the Shariah requirement, then Prophet Mohammad (peace be upon him) would have declared a month to be of 29 days. However, due to this lack of Ilm ul yaqeen (due to the uncertainty) the Prophet Mohammad (peace be upon him) ordered us to look for the Hilal with our own eyes on 30th night for the Ain ul Yaqeen and allowed us to accept the evidence of Ain ul Yaqeen from other Muslims. This acceptance of evidence from other Muslims who have seen the Hilal with their own eyes is a form of Ilm ul Yaqeen for the rest of Muslims. The possibility (Imkan) of seeing the Hilal by current calculation methods does not fulfill the condition of certainty (Ilm ul Yaqeen and/ or Ain ul Yaqeen) required by Islamic principles. In the light of above, we should ask ourselves, Should we discard the well-established practice of sighting the Hilal for authentication of a Lunar month or replace it with a method of calculation which has essentially more element of uncertainty “Zann” than certainty “Yaqeen”?
A universal criteria that can warrant the global visibility of Hilal is neither presently available nor it can possibly be available in future for the reasons to be discussed in the following. The regions of the Earth where the month is 29 days and 30 days keep on changing (astronomical fact # 3). Consequently, it is not possible to have a Lunar month which has the same number of days for a particular month in all parts of the world. A single global Lunar calendar for the whole world is physically not appropriate. The astronomers are aware of this difficulty and they have proposed two and three regional calendars. The attempts to force a single Lunar calendar for the whole world and to synchronize it with Haram Sharif or Macca may be a noble thinking according to the proponents of calculations but it is against the way Allah planned and created the celestial order of the Earth and Moon. Any attempt from us to synchronize it for the whole world with Mecca is not any different than forcing it against the natural order of Allah. Since the knowledge of regions of Earth which will have a particular month of 29 days and 30 days is with Allah only, only local sighting can preserve Allah’s order on universal basis. Any attempts to use global sighting or any arbitrary fixation of place and time with Mecca or Um ul Qura criteria or any other fixation of time and space violate Allah’s order in this context. Allah has fixed certain days and nights for his special blessings, for example, Muslims associate certain Abadah with specific days, such as 15th of Sha’abaan, night of power, Ramadan, Eids, Haj, etc. These dates according to Allah’s plan fall on different days in different region of the Earth, and only Allah has the knowledge of specific timings for each region. Current efforts of forcing the same date by adopting the conjugation calculations and Um ul Qura criteria for the whole world is a way of tinkering with Allah’s plan and Abadah of the Muslim Ummah. For example, the night of power and 15th of Sha’abann will essentially be incorrect for some regions of the Earth, if not for all regions of the Earth and so will be Ramadan and Eids.
A Hilal (new Moon) generally takes more than 16 hours after conjugation occurrence for its first visibility on the Earth. A Hilal which is 14 or 15 hours old when Sun sets in Pakistan, may not be seen in Pakistan but may be visible in the Middle Eastern countries two hours later. Once it becomes visible it would remain visible to the areas of the word west-ward from the sight it was sighted first and will keep growing in size with age (astronomical fact # 6). Considering the age factor, it has up to 45-55% higher probability of being seen in the USA, if it is not seen in the Middle East or Pakistan. Thus, if a Hilal (new Moon) is not seen in the USA under clear weather conditions, it is impossible that it would have been seen in Saudi Arabia 11 hour earlier or in Pakistan 12 or 13 hours earlier. Therefore, any such sighting, as reported in previous years from Peshawar, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia were erroneous and current sighting (2012) for Ramadan Moon from Saudi Arabia and Nigeria are erroneous. Any similar future reports, may be taken with due caution.
The arguments of the proponents of calculations [3] revolve around negating the use of naked eye confirmation to authenticate the new Moon visibility rather than discussing the soundness of calculation methods. I have tried to expose the deceptiveness of some of the argumentation and I have pointed out to the element of uncertainty in calculation methods in previous paragraphs. It is ironical that those who use the calculations from a particular astronomical source for the conjugation occurrence ignore the same source when its visibility curves project impossibility of seeing the Moon in Mecca, and conjugation calculations and Umul Qura criteria project otherwise. Here is the latest example from www.moonsighting.com
• Saudi Arabia:
1. Not Seen: Luqmaan Williams (MCW member) from Ta'if reported: I was in Makkah tonight (Thursday), July 19th. Clear skies but did not sight the crescent.
2. Seen (Saudi Announcement): Mrs. Lubna Shawly (MCW member) from Jiddah reported: It is announced in the Saudi courts, according to the observation of the new Moon (Moon is sighted in areas of Sudair & Shagra), and that the first day of Ramadan for the year 1433 Hijrah will be on Friday the 20th of July 2012.
Moonsighting.com opinion is that this is a mistaken claim of sighting.
Scholars in the past have differed over the issue of local Moon sighting and global Moon sighting. While discussing the issue that a Moon sighting report from how far may be accepted, some early Hanfi scholars proposed that the first sighting anywhere in the world would be valid for the whole world. It was an academic possibility and an extreme case of extending the range of validity of the local Moon sighting. Islam is not the religion of extremes, and those who proposed the concept were not aware of the fact that Earth is not a flat field that it generally appears to us but is nearly spherical and Sun sets at different regions of the Earth at different times. The concept of global Moon sighting remained an extreme academic possibility and was never practiced, even by those who proposed it. The local Moon sighting has been applicable in all practical cases in the past and present. None of the classical scholars, including those who advocated for the global Moon sighting possibility, have entertained the possibility of bypassing the need for eye witnessing to ascertain the Hilal sighting on the eve of 30th of the month.
The Proponents of calculations are applying a new form of global Moon sighting by arbitrarily fixing it with the local sighting at Mecca. This is a different approach from global sighting as first sighting from anywhere else other than Mecca is not considered in this case. There is no religious injunction (nuss) from Quran and Sunnah available for doing so. Previous Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia, Sheikh Bin Baz is reported to have ruled: “As for those who say that it is necessary to follow the sighting of Makkah, then let it be known to them, that there is no proof or basis for this in the Quran and Hadith”. (Sheikh Abdullah bin Baz AlBa’ath ul Islaaami Zil Hijjah 1399 Hijri). Therefore, one may consider it a modern innovation (Biddah). As far as Astronomy is concerned, the flaw here is that such a fixation of time and space is not in accordance with the celestial data. The new Moon is neither seen first in Macca, nor is seen at a fixed time and space after conjugation. Therefore, any such fixation with a particular space on the Earth is against celestial data and would not work for intended purposes. For example, USA and Saudi Arabia have a time differential of 10-13 hours, and a Moon that may not be seen in Saudi Arabia, has up to 45% probability of being seen in the USA. In Saudi Arabia local Moon sighting is practiced and they declare the Eid, Ramadan, and Haj dates according to their local sighting. If the Muslim Community from USA follows the Saudi Arabian announcements and declares the Eid and Ramdan dates according to the Saudi announcement, then what would happen when Moon becomes visible on the same evening in the USA? Any pre-announcement, based on Umul Qura criteria or Saudi Arabian announcements, may not be valid in America and rest of the World. That is why many of the previous announcements by ISNA were not compatible with the local Moon sighting. Any calculations or global criteria must conform to all local Moon sightings for its validity and acceptance. Muslims in any locality are required to fast if the Ramdan Moon has been sighted in the community, and any global declaration that does not conform to the local sighting would be erroneous.
The past scholars who have discussed the possibility of global Moon sighting have not argued to bypass the criteria of naked eye sighting practiced by Rasool Allah (peace be upon him), his companions, and the following generations. Any use of astronomical knowledge or astronomical calculations by classical scholars was used to authenticate the presence or absence of Hilal for the 30th day, or to discard any erroneous witnesses, for example, any claims for seeing the new Moon when astronomically it was impossible or for the authentication of the 30th day. Moon birth could be calculated with a precision of half an hour, even before the birth of modern computers, and ancient astronomers were well versed in making such calculations but Muslims of the past did not use the calculations and kept using the eye sighting criteria. Astronomically calculated visibility curves using modern computers can predict the regions of visibility with about 80% certainty under favorable conditions and such visibility curves have a parabolic shaped part of the Earth surface as the visible region on the completion of the 29th day of the month. The adjacent areas are in the region of invisibility and cover the lager part of the Earth surface. The regions of naked eye visibility are surrounded by various regions of optically aided visibility and regions of invisibility. Thus, regions of invisibility have a higher degree of certainty than regions of naked eye visibility. If there is no report of Hilal sighting from the regions of visibility and there is a report of sighting from the regions of invisibility, then such a report need to be scrutinized thoroughly and may be rejected. For example, Moonsighting.com has just recently rejected the reports from Saudi Arabia and Nigeria on the evening of July 19, 2012 for the visibility of the Ramadan Moon due to the impossibility of visibility through calculation on those sites and lack of sighting anywhere else from nearby and rest of the world. Some classical scholars have argued that astronomical knowledge may be used to authenticate or reject isolated eye witness claims. This approach was for the reason to remain on the side of caution to authenticate any witness, as it is preferable to be on the side of caution than to rush to judgment to accept any witness. When astronomical knowledge ascertains that there is no possibility of seeing the Moon for scientific reasons, isolated eye witness reports may be rejected after thorough scrutiny, as calculations are more definite than sighting in such cases. Similarly, some scholars have argued that when the sky is clear, isolated reports may not be accepted and a witness from a bulk of Muslims (Jam–e-ghafir) is required (for example 50 people from a large city, etc). This was again for remaining on the side of caution, because, if the new Moon is visible at a place many people should be able to see it. What is clearly evident from these visibility curves is that less than half of Earth is in the region of Hilal visibility on the 30th evening and the remaining half would be included in the region of visibility on the following evening, indicating that the month is 29 days for the some part of the Earth and 30 days for the remaining part of the Earth. Any attempts to force the month to be of either 29 or 30 days for the whole planet Earth using Um ul Qura or any other criteria violates the sacred order of Allah and consequently affects the religious rituals of Muslims in some part of the world, if not in the whole world.
To sum up the issue, I would say that I have tried to cover the relevant religious and astronomical aspects in the layman terms. It is without any doubt that none of the classical scholars have argued to bypass the criteria of authenticating the Hilal (new Moon) on the completion of 29th day (eve of the 30th night) with naked eye sighting. The said criteria are given to us by Allah and are taught to us by Rasool Allah (peace be upon him). He practiced them himself, his companions practiced them, and generations of Muslims followed them to date in the letter and spirit. The Prophet Mohammad (peace be upon him) applied these criteria to restore the order Allah created when he made Heavens and Earth and mankind had tinkered with it. We need to preserve the order Allah created. Astronomical knowledge available today leads us to understand the wisdom of Allah in guiding us towards these criteria. The astronomical facts that (1) conjugation may occur anytime during the day or night and a different part of the Earth faces the Moon at each conjugation, and (2) a month is 29 days on some part of the Earth and 30 days on the remaining part of the Earth, and these regions keep on changing every month, represent the complexity of Allah’s order in this context. The local Hilal sighting criteria preserves that order. It is easy in its application and is equally accessible to learned or illiterate, whether living in the city, village, desert, mountains, jungle, or on the sea and is in conformity with Allah’s plan and effectively encompasses the all aspects of Allah’s complexity in this respect. Any attempt of applying the global sighting criteria, or use of any calculations, and use of a fixed space and time for calculations, fall short of meeting the Allah’s order and amount to tempering with Allah’s plan, like Jews are doing and Arabs of pre-Islamic era did. Such attempts essentially affect the Abadah of Muslims at least in some regions of the world, if not for the whole world, due to the deviations from Allah’s natural plan. We need to preserve Allah’s plan by sticking to the existing local sighting criteria. It has also been demonstrated in this article that those who claim that astronomical calculations are definite or categorically certain (Qati) and eye sighting is indefinite or uncertain (Zanni) in absolute terms are wrong in their claims. Factually, there is far more element of Zann (uncertainty) in calculation methods than the element of uncertainty in the naked eye sighting method. The present calculation methods apply the conditions of probability (Imkan) of seeing the Hilal and do not warrant the certainty of seeing the Hilal required by the law giver to authenticate the end and start of the month and fall short on the criteria of Ilm ul Yaqeen or Ain ul Yaqeen required for the authentication according to Islamic Shariah. Any other arguments favoring calculations are based on similar faulty assumptions.
In the end, I admit my short comings and state that any goodness coming from this article is due to the grace of Allah and all faults are mine.
Shahid A. Shaheen
[1] Information available at www.islamicMoon.com, and www.hilalsighting.org
[2] Hamza Yusuf, Cesarean Moon Births, Part I & II, posted on www. zaytuna. org (Zaytuna Institute’s web site), 2006-2007. Available at www.hilalsighting.org
[3] An Analysis of the Moon Sighting Arguments” available at www.Moonsighting.com
Source: Astronomical Facts And Their Impact On The Moon Sighting Issue
(1) Earth, Moon and Sun move in their respective orbits and when all three are in a straight line with Moon in the middle, the state is called “conjugation” or Moon birth. At this stage, the Moon cannot be seen with naked eye from any place on the Earth, as all light from the Sun falling on the Moon is reflected backward towards Sun. At conjugation (Moon birth) the Moon appears to be a black disc as viewed from the Earth.
(2) The conjugation calculations depend on the orbital motion of the Moon around the Earth and time period from one conjugation to the next conjugation is fixed and can be calculated easily and exactly. However, there are 5 different ways to calculate the time period for the conjugation, and all 5 are precise and categorically definte (Qati) but each method reveals a different value for the time perod varying from about 27 days + fraction to 29 days + fraction. None of them is of a complete number of days, 27, 28, 29, or 30. For details see www.Islamicmoon,com [1]. Due to the fractional nature of the Moon cycle around the Earth, each conjugation happens at a different time, i.e., any time during the day or night.
(3) The spinning of the Earth about its own axis has important consequences for the Moon sighting. This motion is not synchronized with the orbital motion of the Moon consequently the region of the Earth that faces the Moon at the conjugation is different at each conjugation. Therefore, there is no fixed time of the day or night or a fixed place on Earth which could be associated with the occurrence of the conjugation. In other words, when conjugation occurs, it may be any time of the day or night and the section of Earth facing the Moon at the conjugation time is also different for each conjugation occurrence. Consequently, the region of Earth on which the Hilal (new Moon) becomes visible at first, keeps on changing every month, and, each month is 29 days on some portion of the Earth and 30 days on the remaining portion of the Earth.
(4) There are various criteria for Hilal (new Moon) visibility, as it must have a certain age, a degree of separation from the Sun, height on the horizon, time lag between Sunset and Moonset, etc. Visibility curves can be calculated with accuracy better than 80% in most cases, and serve as a guide for the Hilal visibility, however, the element of uncertainty in such visibility calculations makes them unusable for Islamic calendar causes.
(5) Due to the global nature (spherical or elliptical) of the Earth and its rotation about its own axis, Southern hemisphere and Equator regions of Earth are in the higher visibility areas than Northern hemisphere.
(Comments: the regions where visibility is very low (northern region) represent a special case. Scholars in those areas have resorted to various discourses. Any meaningful discussion in that context is beyond the scope of this article.)
(6) Once the Hilal becomes visible, it remains visible for adjacent areas towards the West and its visibility increases with the age, unless it is obscured for other reasons such as clouds, fog, dust, etc. For example, if a Hilal is sighted in Pakistan, it should be sighted in Saudi Arabia and rest of the Middle Eastern countries, as it keeps on growing in size with age and it must be seen in the USA, 9 -13 hours later.
The Muslim society (Ummah) is divided on the issue of replacing the Islamic criteria of authenticating the beginning of the new month by sighting the Hilal on the eve of 30th night (Islamic month starts from the Sunset) with a method of calculation based on the conjugation calculations. The reason for the divide is the lack of understanding of the issue by the masses and the confusion between religious scholars and scientists. In the light of above stated facts, we shall examine the claims made by the proponents of calculations namely that (1) calculation method used by them is Qati according to Islamic jurisprudence (usul ul Fiqah) and (2) due to its precision, the calculation method preserves the sacredness of Allah’s order better than the eye sighting method.
If it was not for preserving the sacredness of Allah’s months, following His prescribed plan, mankind would have had the liberty to make any choice to fix the duration of the month, year, and count of the time. However, Allah did not allow this liberty to the mankind, at least in religious matters, and associated his sacred time count with the Lunar cycle (a complete rotation of the Earth around the Sun in its orbit). Here are the relevant Quranic references. “It is He who made the sun to be a shining glory and the Moon to be a light (of beauty), and measured out stages for it; that you may know the number of years and the count (of time). Allah has not created this but in truth. (Thus) does He explain His signs in detail, for those who may understand. (10:5)”
“Surely the months with Allah are twelve in the book of Allah since the day He created the heavens and the Earth; four of them are sacred” (9:36).
From the above it is clear that Allah has been guiding the mankind to follow the Lunar count and many societies of the world have been using the Lunar calendar in some form. Allah associated religious functions like Haj, Ramadan, and Eids with the Lunar count. Religious rituals of Jews, ancient Arabs, and others also have been associated with the Lunar calendar. In the time of Prophet Mohammad (peace be upon him) Jews were using a calculated Lunar calendar and were making intercalations to match it with the Solar calendar and Arabs were using other intercalations to change the Haj dates according to their own desires. Allah disliked their actions, and equated it to the disbelief in him. Here is what Allah mentioned in this context in the Quran: “Verily intercalation (nasi’) is an increase in disbelief: the disbelievers are led to wrong thereby: for they make it lawful one year, and forbidden it another year, in order to adjust the number of months forbidden by Allah and make such forbidden ones lawful. The evil of their course seems pleasing to them. But Allah guides not those who reject Faith. (9:37)”
Prophet Mohammad (peace be upon him) did not use the calculated Lunar calendar. The Jews of medina used to taunt him for not knowing and using calculations for ascertaining the month. If calculations were the preferred method, Allah would have taught Prophet Mohammad (peace be upon him) and his companions the method of calculation, as it is easy for Him. If Allah wanted, he could have fixed the days of the month to 29 or 30 or any combination of them, just as he had fixed the 12 months in a year and such calculations would have been easy for everyone. For example, alternating the month with 29 days and 30 days would make the Lunar year 354 days which is the closest number of days for the 12 Lunar cycles (354 days + fraction). However, Allah and his messenger (peace be upon him) did not do so. If Allah did not require us to use such a simple method of calculation (counting to 29 and 30 for alternate months), would he require us to make complicated astronomical calculations for this purpose? Allah guided us to use the method of sighting the Hilal with our own eyes. Allah guided Prophet Mohammad (peace be upon him) to teach us that the month is sometimes 29 days and sometimes 30 days, and we need to confirm it by witnessing the Hilal through the sighting it with eyes on the 30th night (on the completion of the 29th day) whether the month will end on 29th day or will it be of 30 days. It is a more universal approach and is easy for everyone, illiterate, or learned, whether living in the city, in a forest, in a desert, or on a mountain or on the sea, and it includes Allah’s wisdom and conforms to his natural plan. Prophet Mohammad (peace be upon him) talked against intercalations to the Lunar calendar and remarked in his Last Sermon as follows,
“Today, certainly the time has returned to its original form as Allah had created it to be at the time of creation of the Heavens and the Earth.”
Muslims of the later generations have preserved this sacred order by sighting the Hilal locally every month and ascertaining each month based on this sighting and no altercations have been made in this time. Authentication of the new Moon on the completion of the 29th day (30th evening) of the month is a religious necessity. All scholars agree on this aspect. For confirmation purposes one, two, or more, eye witnesses are required depending on the weather conditions and the following of a particular Fiqhi school. Islamic states form official committees comprising of scholars and astronomers to witness the Hilal, and examine any individual Hilal sighting reports, and confirm or negate the Hilal sighting on the 30th evening of a Lunar month.
Now there is a modernist approach from Muslims primarily living in the West to use astronomical calculations rather than eye sighting for the authentication of the month. Traditional scholars of Islam have reject the idea of using any astronomical calculation method, as the requirement for the Hilal sighting on the eve of 30th of a month is an agreed upon position among all the Jurist (Ijma) of the past 14 centuries and is based on the categorically authentic evidence from the Quran and Sunnah. Muslim Jurist of the past 14 centuries are also in consensus on rejecting any use of astronomical calculations for ascertaining the month, except that a small minority of them (only five scholars of repute) has argued for the use of astronomical calculations in the case of obscurities for observing the Halal on the eve of 30th night. However, none of them has argued to by-pass the requirement of eye sighting the Hilal on the eve of 30th night and are in agreement with the consensus of scholars for the necessity of sighting the Moon on the eve of 30th night [2]. Therefore, from the religious perspective it is not an issue of dispute and there is no basis in Shariah that calculations may be used to replace the existing criteria of Hilal sighting for the authentication of the month.
The stated astronomical facts have several implications for the Moon sighting issue.
(1) At conjugation the Moon is an invisible disc and al-ahillah the plural of al-hilal referred in the Quran is the reference to the visible light reflected from the Moon which is first observed on the Earth after the conjugation occurrence, not the Moon itself. So conjugation is not what is referred in the Quran.
(2) Since conjugation occurs any time during day or night, conjugation occurrence cannot be used as a start of the month; as Islamic month start at a fixed time (at the sunset).
(3) Since a different part of the Earth is facing the Moon when each conjugation occurs, therefore, there is no fixed point on the Earth from where the Lunar month may start using conjugation occurrence.
(4) There are five different ways to calculate time from one conjugation occurrence to the next conjugation occurrence and all are categorically correct (Qati) but each reveals a different time period ranging from (27+ fraction) days – (29 + fraction) days. The proponents of the calculations fail to mention which method they will employee in the absence of any injunction (nass) from the Quran and Sunnah. Do they know of which of the five methods is the best according to Allah’s plan to ascertain the month? Would it not introduce element of speculation (Zann) in whatever method they use?
From the above, it is clear that even though conjugation occurrence may be calculated with precision, it may not be used for starting the month due to the above complications, nor is it the al-ahillah of the Quran. There is element of Zann in choosing one of the 5 conjugation calculation methods, thus any use of conjugation data combined with any other criteria, would be Zanni too. There are other implications of the astronomical facts and we will discuss them later.
In the Quran, Allah has mentioned the terms Ilm ul Yaqeen (certainty through knowledge) and Ain ul Yaqeen (certainty by seeing with eyes). Both terms point to certainty but the latter is a higher form of certainty. For example, we know the existence of our Allah by Ilm ul Yaqeen, but we know the existence of Sun and Moon by Ain ul Yaqeen, i.e., seeing with our own eyes. The desire of Prophet Moses (peace be upon him) to see Allah with his eyes points to the fact that seeing with the eyes or Ain ul Yaqeen is the higher or the highest degree of certainty. It was a common knowledge (Ilm ul Yaqeen) at the time of the prophet Mohammad (peace be upon him) that the Lunar month at any place is 29 days or 30 days, not less, not more. Therefore, there is no need to confirm it, on the completion of 28th day or 30th day; however, one needs to confirm it on the completion of 29th day, to make certain whether the month ends or it will extend for another day. Prophet Mohammad (peace be upon him) taught us to confirm the end of month by sighting the Hilal (new Moon) on the eve of the 30th night with our own eyes (ain ul Yaqeen), and he practiced it himself and his companions practiced it. He also taught us that confirmed eye sighting (ain ul Yaqeen) of a few Muslims may be sufficient for the Ilm ul Yaqeen of the rest of the Muslims.
Now we consider the claim of the proponents of the calculation method that calculation method is categorical (Qati) and eye sighting is speculative (Zanni) and anything that is zanni cannot be equated or preferred over what is Qati according to the Islamic principles of the Jurisprudence (usul ul Fiqah) [3].
This argument is not only flawed due to astronomical facts stated above, but is deceptive, as well. Here is what Dr. Zulfiqar Ali Shah claimed: “My argument is that precise authentic astronomical calculations about the birth of new Moon are sufficient of a ground to affirm Islamic Lunar months.” … “calculations about the birth of Moon are universally accepted. They are not Zanni but Qati' (categorical) in Usul al-Fiqah's terminology” [1]. We have shown in the section on astronomical facts that though conjugation calculations based on the orbital motion of the Moon around the Earth are categorically definite (Qati), but they cannot be used for the beginning of the month due to the difficulties associated with the spinning of the Earth about its own axis, and use of any arbitrary criteria of Hilal sighting, such as Um ul Qura criteria of Hilal siting, used by Islamic Society of North America (ISNA) in combination with conjugation data is speculative (Zanni) from many aspects. To add weight to their arguments, proponents of calculations have used the name of a reputed classical scholar Imam Taqi al-Din al-Subki (d.1355 GC) for declaring calculations as definite (Qati) and eye sighting as speculative (Zanni) to give the impression that he was among those who preferred calculations over the eye sighting. Here is Imam Subki’s actual position:
“The Muslims are in consensus, as far as I know, that there is no legal consideration for the opinion of the astronomer that [the month begins] with the separation of the Moon from the Sun at conjunction if visibility is not possible due to the nearness of the crescent to the Sun’s [alignment], irrespective of whether this is before, after, or at the time of Sunset. What scholars have disagreed upon is the situation when the angle of elongation is such that visibility is possible and can be ascertained by calculation but there were clouds that came between us and the crescent; then, in that case, is it permissible to use calculation.” [2]
Here is another quote from his rulings:
“Calculation provides certain and confirmed information, while testimony based on sighting provides only probable information. What is probable cannot counterbalance what is certain, let alone be preferred to it. Evidence is accepted only if what is testified for is possible physically, logically and legally. If we assume that calculation indicates with certainty the impossibility of sighting, then a testimony of sighting must be rejected because it testifies to what is impossible. Islamic law does not make impossible requirements.” (Source: Arab News, 05 November 2002).
Now it is clear from the two statements that Imam Subki was in complete agreement with other scholars in not using the astronomical calculations for ascertaining the end and beginning of the month on completion of the 29th day (on the 30th evening). However, he was on the side of caution to use such information for the 30th day in case of obscurities to see the Hilal. He was also on the side of caution to reject any eye witness of positive sighting when the calculations predicted with certainty that it was impossible to see the Hilal. One may see how deceptive is it to conclude from the above that according to Imam Subki calculations are Qati and sighting is Zanni (in absolute sense)?
The above evidence was the only evidence from classical sources for the claims that calculations are Qati and eye sighting is Zanni. It is apparent now, how baseless was the base on which religious and scientific arguments have been based to abandon the Islamic criteria of Hilial sighting practiced by Muslims for the past 14 centuries?
The modernists claim that the calculation method adopted by them is more precise and thus, preserves Allah’s celestial order better than the eye sighting method. First we examine the case of fixing an arbitrary criterion for the visibility of Hilal, as is done for the Um ul Qura calendar used by Saudi Arabia and Islamic Society of North America (ISNA). The visibility criteria used in this case is that, if conjugation occurs before 3.00 a.m. according to Mecca time and Moonset is after or at the time of the Sunset in Mecca, then the Moon is considered visible or observed. I have already pointed to the element of Zann (uncertainty) in selecting one of the five conjugation calculation methods. Now there are multiple elements of Zann, as well as, violations of Allah’s celestial order in using this criterion. According to Allah’s celestial order, Hilal is not always observed first in Mecca rather it is observed at a different place every month and it may take decades for the Hilal to appear firstly at the same place again. Saudi Arabian government claims to be practicing local Moon sighting for religious purposes and using Um ul Qura calendar for civil purposes. If Um ul Qura method is used for global purposes, as ISNA is currently doing, then the Lunar month will be of the same number of days for the whole planet Earth, whereas, according to Allah’s celestial order each Lunar month is 29 days on some regions of the Earth and 30 days on the remaining region of the Earth and these regions keep on changing every month. The exact knowledge of where the month will be 29 days and where the month will be 30 days is with Allah alone and cannot be predicted by astronomers, though they may confirm it once it happens.
Does the Um ul Qura criterion provide any certainty for the observance of Hilal, a condition necessary from the perspective of Islamic Shariah? No, it may at the best point to the possibility (Imkan) for the early observance of the Hilal. However, the experience shows that there is more chance of being wrong than right using this criterion. Based on the past experience, there is about 45-55% probability of a month being 29 days or 30 days at any given place. So, one may better flip a coin than using such a criterion. A method of calculation will fall in the category of Ilm ul Yaqeen, if there is no element of doubt (Zann) in it. When Um ul Qura criterion does not satisfy the underlined condition, what is the wisdom in selecting this criterion by the proponents of the calculation? Why such a faulty criterion is being imposed on Muslims of North America? I would appreciate, if proponents of calculations may respond to these questions.
A question arises that whether probability (Imkan) of seeing the Hilal on a particular evening at Mecca or any other place would be a sufficient ground for declaring confirmed sighting (Roha’it) either through calculations or otherwise. Everyone is aware that the Hilal may be seen on the completion of 29th day or it may not be seen on the completion of 29th day. Were this probability (Imkan) of seeing the Hilal on the completion of 29th day a sufficient ground for fulfilling the Shariah requirement, then Prophet Mohammad (peace be upon him) would have declared a month to be of 29 days. However, due to this lack of Ilm ul yaqeen (due to the uncertainty) the Prophet Mohammad (peace be upon him) ordered us to look for the Hilal with our own eyes on 30th night for the Ain ul Yaqeen and allowed us to accept the evidence of Ain ul Yaqeen from other Muslims. This acceptance of evidence from other Muslims who have seen the Hilal with their own eyes is a form of Ilm ul Yaqeen for the rest of Muslims. The possibility (Imkan) of seeing the Hilal by current calculation methods does not fulfill the condition of certainty (Ilm ul Yaqeen and/ or Ain ul Yaqeen) required by Islamic principles. In the light of above, we should ask ourselves, Should we discard the well-established practice of sighting the Hilal for authentication of a Lunar month or replace it with a method of calculation which has essentially more element of uncertainty “Zann” than certainty “Yaqeen”?
A universal criteria that can warrant the global visibility of Hilal is neither presently available nor it can possibly be available in future for the reasons to be discussed in the following. The regions of the Earth where the month is 29 days and 30 days keep on changing (astronomical fact # 3). Consequently, it is not possible to have a Lunar month which has the same number of days for a particular month in all parts of the world. A single global Lunar calendar for the whole world is physically not appropriate. The astronomers are aware of this difficulty and they have proposed two and three regional calendars. The attempts to force a single Lunar calendar for the whole world and to synchronize it with Haram Sharif or Macca may be a noble thinking according to the proponents of calculations but it is against the way Allah planned and created the celestial order of the Earth and Moon. Any attempt from us to synchronize it for the whole world with Mecca is not any different than forcing it against the natural order of Allah. Since the knowledge of regions of Earth which will have a particular month of 29 days and 30 days is with Allah only, only local sighting can preserve Allah’s order on universal basis. Any attempts to use global sighting or any arbitrary fixation of place and time with Mecca or Um ul Qura criteria or any other fixation of time and space violate Allah’s order in this context. Allah has fixed certain days and nights for his special blessings, for example, Muslims associate certain Abadah with specific days, such as 15th of Sha’abaan, night of power, Ramadan, Eids, Haj, etc. These dates according to Allah’s plan fall on different days in different region of the Earth, and only Allah has the knowledge of specific timings for each region. Current efforts of forcing the same date by adopting the conjugation calculations and Um ul Qura criteria for the whole world is a way of tinkering with Allah’s plan and Abadah of the Muslim Ummah. For example, the night of power and 15th of Sha’abann will essentially be incorrect for some regions of the Earth, if not for all regions of the Earth and so will be Ramadan and Eids.
A Hilal (new Moon) generally takes more than 16 hours after conjugation occurrence for its first visibility on the Earth. A Hilal which is 14 or 15 hours old when Sun sets in Pakistan, may not be seen in Pakistan but may be visible in the Middle Eastern countries two hours later. Once it becomes visible it would remain visible to the areas of the word west-ward from the sight it was sighted first and will keep growing in size with age (astronomical fact # 6). Considering the age factor, it has up to 45-55% higher probability of being seen in the USA, if it is not seen in the Middle East or Pakistan. Thus, if a Hilal (new Moon) is not seen in the USA under clear weather conditions, it is impossible that it would have been seen in Saudi Arabia 11 hour earlier or in Pakistan 12 or 13 hours earlier. Therefore, any such sighting, as reported in previous years from Peshawar, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia were erroneous and current sighting (2012) for Ramadan Moon from Saudi Arabia and Nigeria are erroneous. Any similar future reports, may be taken with due caution.
The arguments of the proponents of calculations [3] revolve around negating the use of naked eye confirmation to authenticate the new Moon visibility rather than discussing the soundness of calculation methods. I have tried to expose the deceptiveness of some of the argumentation and I have pointed out to the element of uncertainty in calculation methods in previous paragraphs. It is ironical that those who use the calculations from a particular astronomical source for the conjugation occurrence ignore the same source when its visibility curves project impossibility of seeing the Moon in Mecca, and conjugation calculations and Umul Qura criteria project otherwise. Here is the latest example from www.moonsighting.com
• Saudi Arabia:
1. Not Seen: Luqmaan Williams (MCW member) from Ta'if reported: I was in Makkah tonight (Thursday), July 19th. Clear skies but did not sight the crescent.
2. Seen (Saudi Announcement): Mrs. Lubna Shawly (MCW member) from Jiddah reported: It is announced in the Saudi courts, according to the observation of the new Moon (Moon is sighted in areas of Sudair & Shagra), and that the first day of Ramadan for the year 1433 Hijrah will be on Friday the 20th of July 2012.
Moonsighting.com opinion is that this is a mistaken claim of sighting.
Scholars in the past have differed over the issue of local Moon sighting and global Moon sighting. While discussing the issue that a Moon sighting report from how far may be accepted, some early Hanfi scholars proposed that the first sighting anywhere in the world would be valid for the whole world. It was an academic possibility and an extreme case of extending the range of validity of the local Moon sighting. Islam is not the religion of extremes, and those who proposed the concept were not aware of the fact that Earth is not a flat field that it generally appears to us but is nearly spherical and Sun sets at different regions of the Earth at different times. The concept of global Moon sighting remained an extreme academic possibility and was never practiced, even by those who proposed it. The local Moon sighting has been applicable in all practical cases in the past and present. None of the classical scholars, including those who advocated for the global Moon sighting possibility, have entertained the possibility of bypassing the need for eye witnessing to ascertain the Hilal sighting on the eve of 30th of the month.
The Proponents of calculations are applying a new form of global Moon sighting by arbitrarily fixing it with the local sighting at Mecca. This is a different approach from global sighting as first sighting from anywhere else other than Mecca is not considered in this case. There is no religious injunction (nuss) from Quran and Sunnah available for doing so. Previous Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia, Sheikh Bin Baz is reported to have ruled: “As for those who say that it is necessary to follow the sighting of Makkah, then let it be known to them, that there is no proof or basis for this in the Quran and Hadith”. (Sheikh Abdullah bin Baz AlBa’ath ul Islaaami Zil Hijjah 1399 Hijri). Therefore, one may consider it a modern innovation (Biddah). As far as Astronomy is concerned, the flaw here is that such a fixation of time and space is not in accordance with the celestial data. The new Moon is neither seen first in Macca, nor is seen at a fixed time and space after conjugation. Therefore, any such fixation with a particular space on the Earth is against celestial data and would not work for intended purposes. For example, USA and Saudi Arabia have a time differential of 10-13 hours, and a Moon that may not be seen in Saudi Arabia, has up to 45% probability of being seen in the USA. In Saudi Arabia local Moon sighting is practiced and they declare the Eid, Ramadan, and Haj dates according to their local sighting. If the Muslim Community from USA follows the Saudi Arabian announcements and declares the Eid and Ramdan dates according to the Saudi announcement, then what would happen when Moon becomes visible on the same evening in the USA? Any pre-announcement, based on Umul Qura criteria or Saudi Arabian announcements, may not be valid in America and rest of the World. That is why many of the previous announcements by ISNA were not compatible with the local Moon sighting. Any calculations or global criteria must conform to all local Moon sightings for its validity and acceptance. Muslims in any locality are required to fast if the Ramdan Moon has been sighted in the community, and any global declaration that does not conform to the local sighting would be erroneous.
The past scholars who have discussed the possibility of global Moon sighting have not argued to bypass the criteria of naked eye sighting practiced by Rasool Allah (peace be upon him), his companions, and the following generations. Any use of astronomical knowledge or astronomical calculations by classical scholars was used to authenticate the presence or absence of Hilal for the 30th day, or to discard any erroneous witnesses, for example, any claims for seeing the new Moon when astronomically it was impossible or for the authentication of the 30th day. Moon birth could be calculated with a precision of half an hour, even before the birth of modern computers, and ancient astronomers were well versed in making such calculations but Muslims of the past did not use the calculations and kept using the eye sighting criteria. Astronomically calculated visibility curves using modern computers can predict the regions of visibility with about 80% certainty under favorable conditions and such visibility curves have a parabolic shaped part of the Earth surface as the visible region on the completion of the 29th day of the month. The adjacent areas are in the region of invisibility and cover the lager part of the Earth surface. The regions of naked eye visibility are surrounded by various regions of optically aided visibility and regions of invisibility. Thus, regions of invisibility have a higher degree of certainty than regions of naked eye visibility. If there is no report of Hilal sighting from the regions of visibility and there is a report of sighting from the regions of invisibility, then such a report need to be scrutinized thoroughly and may be rejected. For example, Moonsighting.com has just recently rejected the reports from Saudi Arabia and Nigeria on the evening of July 19, 2012 for the visibility of the Ramadan Moon due to the impossibility of visibility through calculation on those sites and lack of sighting anywhere else from nearby and rest of the world. Some classical scholars have argued that astronomical knowledge may be used to authenticate or reject isolated eye witness claims. This approach was for the reason to remain on the side of caution to authenticate any witness, as it is preferable to be on the side of caution than to rush to judgment to accept any witness. When astronomical knowledge ascertains that there is no possibility of seeing the Moon for scientific reasons, isolated eye witness reports may be rejected after thorough scrutiny, as calculations are more definite than sighting in such cases. Similarly, some scholars have argued that when the sky is clear, isolated reports may not be accepted and a witness from a bulk of Muslims (Jam–e-ghafir) is required (for example 50 people from a large city, etc). This was again for remaining on the side of caution, because, if the new Moon is visible at a place many people should be able to see it. What is clearly evident from these visibility curves is that less than half of Earth is in the region of Hilal visibility on the 30th evening and the remaining half would be included in the region of visibility on the following evening, indicating that the month is 29 days for the some part of the Earth and 30 days for the remaining part of the Earth. Any attempts to force the month to be of either 29 or 30 days for the whole planet Earth using Um ul Qura or any other criteria violates the sacred order of Allah and consequently affects the religious rituals of Muslims in some part of the world, if not in the whole world.
To sum up the issue, I would say that I have tried to cover the relevant religious and astronomical aspects in the layman terms. It is without any doubt that none of the classical scholars have argued to bypass the criteria of authenticating the Hilal (new Moon) on the completion of 29th day (eve of the 30th night) with naked eye sighting. The said criteria are given to us by Allah and are taught to us by Rasool Allah (peace be upon him). He practiced them himself, his companions practiced them, and generations of Muslims followed them to date in the letter and spirit. The Prophet Mohammad (peace be upon him) applied these criteria to restore the order Allah created when he made Heavens and Earth and mankind had tinkered with it. We need to preserve the order Allah created. Astronomical knowledge available today leads us to understand the wisdom of Allah in guiding us towards these criteria. The astronomical facts that (1) conjugation may occur anytime during the day or night and a different part of the Earth faces the Moon at each conjugation, and (2) a month is 29 days on some part of the Earth and 30 days on the remaining part of the Earth, and these regions keep on changing every month, represent the complexity of Allah’s order in this context. The local Hilal sighting criteria preserves that order. It is easy in its application and is equally accessible to learned or illiterate, whether living in the city, village, desert, mountains, jungle, or on the sea and is in conformity with Allah’s plan and effectively encompasses the all aspects of Allah’s complexity in this respect. Any attempt of applying the global sighting criteria, or use of any calculations, and use of a fixed space and time for calculations, fall short of meeting the Allah’s order and amount to tempering with Allah’s plan, like Jews are doing and Arabs of pre-Islamic era did. Such attempts essentially affect the Abadah of Muslims at least in some regions of the world, if not for the whole world, due to the deviations from Allah’s natural plan. We need to preserve Allah’s plan by sticking to the existing local sighting criteria. It has also been demonstrated in this article that those who claim that astronomical calculations are definite or categorically certain (Qati) and eye sighting is indefinite or uncertain (Zanni) in absolute terms are wrong in their claims. Factually, there is far more element of Zann (uncertainty) in calculation methods than the element of uncertainty in the naked eye sighting method. The present calculation methods apply the conditions of probability (Imkan) of seeing the Hilal and do not warrant the certainty of seeing the Hilal required by the law giver to authenticate the end and start of the month and fall short on the criteria of Ilm ul Yaqeen or Ain ul Yaqeen required for the authentication according to Islamic Shariah. Any other arguments favoring calculations are based on similar faulty assumptions.
In the end, I admit my short comings and state that any goodness coming from this article is due to the grace of Allah and all faults are mine.
Shahid A. Shaheen
[1] Information available at www.islamicMoon.com, and www.hilalsighting.org
[2] Hamza Yusuf, Cesarean Moon Births, Part I & II, posted on www. zaytuna. org (Zaytuna Institute’s web site), 2006-2007. Available at www.hilalsighting.org
[3] An Analysis of the Moon Sighting Arguments” available at www.Moonsighting.com
Source: Astronomical Facts And Their Impact On The Moon Sighting Issue
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